| Key Points: – Phemex flagged $1.8B hourly aggressive selling amid rising U.S.–Iran tensions. – Aggressive sells drained liquidity, widened spreads, triggered liquidations, unwound open interest. – Resulting stress: sharp intraday volatility, thinner depth, unstable funding and basis. |
According to Phemex, $1.8 billion in aggressive sell volume hit crypto derivatives within a single hour as U.S.–Iran tensions rose. The platform-reported figure signals a rapid de-risking impulse across leveraged venues and heightened anxiety.
Aggressive sell orders cross the bid and can drain order-book liquidity quickly, increasing slippage and widening spreads. In derivatives markets, that pressure can force liquidations and accelerate an open-interest unwind, creating feedback loops that magnify price swings even when spot flows are modest.
The immediate impact is typically sharp intraday volatility, thinner depth on key pairs, and unstable basis as perpetual swap funding flips around stress points. Single-platform figures may not capture the whole market, but they do highlight stress concentrations that can transmit across exchanges during correlated sell programs.
How U.S.-Iran tensions are moving crypto markets now
Analysts have framed the current market tone as a classic flight to safety, with risk assets under pressure while havens attract interest, as reported by The Block. In this setup, crypto can trade more like high-beta tech, with geopolitical shocks tightening financial conditions and dampening risk appetite.
A platform bulletin captured the mood around the latest downdraft. “Panic selling has intensified in the cryptocurrency derivatives markets as geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalate. This morning, $1.8 billion in aggressive sell volume was recorded within just one hour,” said Phemex News.
At the time of this writing, Bitcoin (BTC) trades near 64,067, with sentiment flagged “Bearish” and 7.94% volatility marked as high. The RSI-14 sits around 39.37, while price remains below the 50- and 200-day SMAs at 79,015 and 97,914, respectively. These readings indicate fragile risk tolerance rather than a directional conclusion.
What could change next and what to watch
Escalation vs. containment scenarios and market implications
As reported by CNBC, strategist Marko Papic has outlined a worst-case escalation in which a Strait of Hormuz disruption could spike oil above $100, trigger double-digit equity declines, and intensify safe-haven demand. In the same coverage, Dan Ives suggested markets at times have leaned toward a containment base case, reflecting expectations that broader conflict may be limited.
For crypto, an escalation path would likely mean higher realized volatility, pro-cyclical deleveraging in derivatives, and tighter liquidity across alt pairs. A containment path would not remove headline risk, but funding and basis could stabilize, allowing positioning to normalize as order-book depth returns.
Quick background: Iran-linked crypto flows and market sensitivity
Based on data from TRM Labs, Iran-linked crypto activity was roughly $10 billion in 2025 versus $11.4 billion in 2024. That backdrop helps explain why geopolitical headlines can catalyze rapid de-risking and hedging flows across regional channels and global venues.
Chainalysis estimated Iran’s on-chain ecosystem at about $7.78 billion in 2025, noting spikes tied to major domestic and geopolitical events. Such episodic surges align with today’s market sensitivity, where headline risk can swiftly translate into leverage unwinds and broader risk-off behavior.
Disclaimer:
The information provided on AiCryptoCore.com is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency investments involve risk and may result in financial loss. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
