| Key Points: – Retail dominance claim remains unverified; definitions of control vary across datasets. – Institutional ETF participation grows, complicating simplistic narratives about retail control. – Large treasury holdings compress circulating float without conferring majority control. |
Retail control of Bitcoin supply remains a live debate after a headline claim that retail now holds the largest share since June 2024. The core issue is definitional: how “retail” is measured across on-chain addresses, ETF share registers, and custodial venues.
This article reviews what can and cannot be verified from available data, how ownership is actually measured, and what metrics to watch as ETFs and on-chain cohorts evolve.
The headline claim that retail investors control the largest share since June 2024 remains unverified in vetted research and disclosures. Ownership labels depend on methodology, and the data sources used do not map neatly to a single view of “retail control.”
Institutional participation through spot Bitcoin ETFs has expanded, while many individuals now gain exposure via those same ETFs rather than self-custody. As reported by CoinDesk, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has argued that institutions are steadily building exposure through ETFs, pushing against a simplistic “retail dominance” narrative.
Large treasuries also matter for circulating float. As reported by Cointelegraph, MicroStrategy’s holdings have been described in the 2.4%–2.8% range of total supply, an anchor that highlights how concentrated, long-term holders can influence available liquidity even without dictating majority control.
How Bitcoin ownership is measured: on-chain cohorts, ETFs, illiquid supply
On-chain cohort analysis clusters addresses by size to approximate small holders (“shrimp,” “crab”), mid-sized holders, and “whales.” These cohorts are proxies, not identities, since one person can control multiple addresses and custodians aggregate many beneficial owners.
ETF and 13F-style reporting offer a complementary lens but blur labels. Spot ETF sponsors like BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) hold the underlying BTC in custody; the ETF share register contains a mix of retail brokerage accounts and institutional holders, which are not fully disaggregated in public data. Illiquid supply metrics, which track coins held without movement for extended periods, further complicate “who controls what,” because dormant coins may be owned by either retail or institutions.
A key point in the ETF lens is who owns the ETF shares. Said André Dragosch, Head of Research at Bitwise: “About 75% of shares in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are held by retail investors or non-reporting entities,” underscoring that retail exposure increasingly flows through funds rather than on-chain self-custody.
At the time of this writing, based on data from Yahoo Finance, Bitcoin recently traded around the high-$68,000s, a neutral backdrop for interpreting ownership signals.
What to watch next in Bitcoin ownership data
ETF flows in IBIT and share distribution shifts
Watch primary-market creations and redemptions for IBIT and peers, alongside changes in share distribution across major brokerages. These movements can signal whether exposure is concentrating in a few large accounts or diffusing across smaller holders.
Also monitor how ETF sponsors and custodians describe beneficial ownership trends in public commentary and filings. Pairing those notes with periodic 13F reports and sponsor updates can help clarify whether exposure is tilting further toward institutions or staying broadly distributed.
On-chain cohort rebalancing: small wallets versus whale holdings
Track net accumulation by small-wallet cohorts versus whales to gauge grassroots participation. If small cohorts accumulate while exchange balances fall, retail self-custody may be rising; if ETFs absorb flows while small cohorts stagnate, retail may be shifting to funds.
According to Bitfinex analysts, smaller cohorts have at times accumulated at a pace exceeding post-halving issuance (around 13,400 BTC per month), a dynamic that, if sustained, would tighten tradable float even without new institutional block buys.
Disclaimer:
The information provided on AiCryptoCore.com is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency investments involve risk and may result in financial loss. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
