| Key Points: – Bitcoin risks sub-$60K if $65K support and 200-week MA fail. – Unrealized losses among holders heighten capitulation risk during breakdowns. – Realized-price baselines frame near-term downside, amplifying drawdowns on support breaches. |
Bitcoin’s latest downswing has sharpened focus on whether $60,000 could fail. Structural signals, key support near $65,000, the vicinity of the long-term 200‑week moving average, and realized‑price baselines, frame the near‑term risk.
Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy Digital, has warned that BTC is testing the 200‑week moving average near the upper‑$50,000s and that a large cohort of holders sits at unrealized losses, which can raise capitulation risk. Those mechanics can amplify drawdowns if support levels break.
On-chain metrics: Realized Price, LTH SOPR (Glassnode, CryptoQuant)
Based on data from Glassnode, post‑drawdown accumulation appears weaker than after the 2022 LUNA collapse, with $65,000 acting as initial support but a decisive breach opening downside toward the Realized Price area near $54,000. The firm also notes LTH SOPR has slipped below 1, indicating long‑term holders realizing losses.
According to CryptoQuant, BTC remains above its aggregate cost basis, and in past cycles spot prices have in some instances traded 24–30% below realized price before durable bottoms formed. The group also contrasts a roughly 23% decline over 83 days since dropping under the 365‑day moving average with about 6% over the equivalent 2022 window, underscoring faster momentum deterioration.
What scenarios could unfold next for Bitcoin?
Scenario paths hinge on whether $65,000 holds or $60,000 breaks. Historical cycle markers and on‑chain positioning suggest both consolidation and further drawdowns are plausible.
Kaiko Research describes the current phase as the “halfway point” of the post‑halving bear cycle, implying additional retracement cannot be ruled out. That framing situates present levels within prior cycle drawdowns and helps contextualize risk.
If $65K holds: consolidation risk and bounce catalysts
A sustained defense of $65,000 would likely steer price into a choppy consolidation range. Stabilization would be more credible if long‑term holder spending moderates and LTH SOPR climbs back above 1, signaling reduced realized losses.
Improving spot volumes and tighter bid‑ask depth could assist a rebound, while the 200‑week moving average below price would add technical cushion. Any recovery would still need confirmation from on‑chain cost‑basis metrics.
If $60K breaks: path toward Realized Price support
A clean break of $60,000 would expose the mid‑to‑high‑$50,000 zone and, if momentum accelerates, a test toward the Realized Price band cited above near $54,000. Such a move would likely coincide with elevated realized losses among long‑term holders.
At the time of this writing, Bitcoin trades near $68,634, providing context for these levels; market data may be delayed and is for background only. This analysis is informational and does not constitute investment advice.
Disclaimer:
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