| Key Points: – Momentum persists if catalysts exceed supply pressures and liquidity improves. – Rallies risk fading once token unlocks expand float and enthusiasm normalizes. – Structural headwinds and transparency gaps can cap gains despite breakout sentiment. |
The Pi Network price rally has continued to find bids, but its durability appears conditional on whether new catalysts can outweigh increasing float and supply-related friction. In practice, momentum tends to persist when access improves and narrative strength is matched by tangible progress.
As reported by BeInCrypto, PI completed one breakout recently and sentiment improved, a setup that can extend if key resistance gives way (https://beincrypto.com/pi-coin-price-breakout-analysis/). However, without clearer fundamentals and liquidity depth, such breakouts can stall as enthusiasm normalizes.
Structural headwinds, heavy token unlocks, low liquidity relative to a large potential supply, and gaps in distribution transparency, have been flagged as risks that can cap rallies, according to AInvest (https://www.ainvest.com/news/pi-network-rally-structural-flaws-technical-optimism-2510/). These dynamics suggest momentum may fade once immediate catalysts pass unless supply pressure abates.
Market snapshot: price, momentum, volatility right now
At the time of this writing, PI trades near $0.1867. Momentum reads are neutral-to-firm: the 14-day RSI is around 64.05, while volatility near 10% is characterized as very high, and green days number 12 of the last 30.
Trend context shows price above the 50-day SMA (~$0.1826) yet below the 200-day SMA (~$0.2774), with sentiment screening bearish. That mix is consistent with recoveries that can continue tactically but remain vulnerable to supply or headline shocks.
Recent coverage by FXStreet noted PI trading above $0.1900 and extending weekly gains of roughly 8%, reflecting a steady recovery backdrop (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/pi-network-price-forecast-pi-rally-defies-market-pressure-ahead-of-its-first-anniversary-202602180500). The figures indicate improving participation, though confirmation would require sustained closes above resistance.
What could change the outlook next
Markets are watching for two opposing forces: visible catalysts that deepen utility and access, and supply events that expand tradable float. The PI token unlock schedule and the Pi mainnet launch timeline are focal points for scenario-building around the rally’s longevity.
Bullish triggers to monitor in coming weeks
Concrete progress toward mainnet activity and real-world utility could stabilize demand and strengthen liquidity, anchoring the Pi Network price prediction debate in observable use. Clearer disclosures and a credible build cadence would improve confidence in the project’s trajectory.
Liquidity expansion via new listings on larger venues, such as Binance or other Tier-1 exchanges, could broaden participation and reduce slippage. If prior breakout levels hold as support, momentum can extend as market depth improves.
Lower near-term supply pressure, fewer large unlocks or transparent release cadences, would mitigate dilution concerns. Greater clarity on circulating float typically improves pricing efficiency and lowers the risk of sharp reversals.
Bearish signals that may end the rally
Unfavorable unlock timing, unexpected token migrations, or opaque distribution could overwhelm bids and compress rebounds. If utility milestones slip, rallies may resolve into brief short-covering spikes rather than sustained trends.
Reputational and regulatory overhang can also weigh on liquidity and listings. “Pi Network is a ‘scam,'” said Ben Zhou, CEO of Bybit, in remarks reported by CoinDesk (https://www.coindesk.com/business/2025/02/21/bybit-ceo-labels-pi-network-a-scam-citing-official-police-warning). Such criticisms may limit access on major venues and raise diligence thresholds for counterparties.
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