| Key Points: – Market confidence fragile; outcome depends on Feb 15 mainnet execution. – Technical picture bearish: RSI near 26, below 50- and 200-day SMAs. – Weak momentum increases headline-risk sensitivity and potential for rapid direction shifts. |
Pi Network enters the Feb 15 mainnet deadline with a cautious, execution-dependent outlook. The market setup suggests fragile confidence that could pivot quickly on operational outcomes.
Based on data from CoinCodex, PI shows a 14-day RSI near 26 (oversold), sits below its 50- and 200-day SMAs, and screens Bearish on aggregated technicals. This mix implies weak momentum and sensitivity to headline risk.
Pi Mainnet node upgrade deadline: Pi Core Team mandate and risks
According to Bitget News, the Pi Core Team has mandated a mainnet node upgrade by Feb 15, 2026, with non-compliant nodes facing disconnection. The principal risk is operational: uneven execution could impact liveness and confidence, even if temporary.
“February 15, 2026 is the mandatory upgrade deadline for all Pi Mainnet node operators. Nodes that fail to update will be disconnected,” Bitget News reported. The mandate is infrastructure-focused rather than tokenomics-changing, but near-term perceptions often drive liquidity and spreads.
A clean, timely rollout would likely reduce execution risk and stabilize network participants’ expectations. Conversely, visible disruption, even if brief, could amplify risk premia across order books.
Pi Network price prediction: scenarios around the Feb 15 deadline
Bearish setup: supply, sentiment, and weak momentum
Bearish risk centers on supply overhang dynamics, including potential token unlocks, interacting with already negative sentiment. With very high measured volatility and only 9 of the past 30 sessions closing green, sellers retain initiative.
Trend posture remains soft while price tracks beneath medium- and long-term moving averages. If the deadline reveals frictions, such as notable node disconnects, sentiment and liquidity could weaken further without implying a deterministic outcome.
Upside setup: clean upgrade, stability, and new liquidity
An orderly upgrade with minimal disconnections could lower perceived operational risk and help narrow spreads. Stability may allow incremental mean reversion if fresh liquidity arrives, though durability would still depend on follow-through utility and participation.
Absent confirmed new venues or major on-chain demand sinks, any near-term strength may be tactical. Post-deadline behavior will likely hinge on execution quality, network stability signals, and evidence of sustained activity.
At the time of writing, PI trades near $0.1329 with a market value around $1.20B, down roughly 3% over 24 hours, according to OKX United States. These figures provide context rather than a view on direction.
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