Bernstein Keeps $150K Bitcoin Target Despite 54% Pullback

Bernstein maintained its $150,000 year-end Bitcoin price target in a July 6 research note, arguing that the current drawdown from October 2025 highs is milder than previous cycle-ending corrections and that institutional demand continues to keep net flows positive.

Analyst Gautam Chhugani and his team at Bernstein described the selloff as a roughly 54% pullback from the October 2025 peak, when Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $126,080 on October 6, 2025. As of July 7, BTC traded around $63,146, putting the live drawdown closer to 49.9% from that peak. For related coverage, see Ledger Co-Founder Warns $1M Bitcoin Could Signal Collapse.

Why Bernstein Still Sees Bitcoin Reaching $150,000

The Bernstein note framed the current downturn as structurally different from previous bear markets. Prior Bitcoin cycle-ending drawdowns ranged from 75% to 90%, making a 54% decline comparatively shallow in historical context. For related coverage, see Trump Bitcoin Reserve Plan Hits Legal, Bureaucratic Roadblocks.

Bernstein also noted the current downcycle has lasted about three quarters, shorter than the 12 to 15 months typical of previous corrections. That compressed timeline, combined with the smaller percentage drop, supported the firm’s view that the cycle has not broken.

The distinction between the reported 54% drawdown and the July 7 live reading of roughly 49.9% reflects timing. Bernstein’s note used a July 6 market reference point, while BTC recovered slightly by the following day. This is consistent with Bernstein’s broader long-term bullishness on Bitcoin, which has included a $1 million target by 2033.

The Fear & Greed Index sat at 27 on July 7, firmly in “Fear” territory. Bernstein issued its reaffirmation against that fearful backdrop, a signal the firm views current sentiment as disconnected from structural demand trends.

What Bernstein Says Is Supporting Bitcoin in This Downturn

Bernstein pointed to capital flows as the core pillar of its thesis. The firm said combined 2026 inflows from bitcoin treasury companies and ETFs totaled $10 billion, even as spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $5.5 billion of outflows against a $74 billion asset base.

Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, was central to that positive flow picture. Bernstein said the company acquired approximately 175,000 BTC for roughly $14 billion in 2026. The firm’s June 29 SEC filing confirmed Strategy held 847,363 BTC as of June 28 and disclosed a board-authorized BTC monetization program that may generate up to $1.25 billion in additional proceeds.

That filing is relevant to Bernstein’s argument that forced selling from treasury companies is unlikely. With Strategy’s debt at roughly 13% of its BTC collateral value, the balance sheet has significant room before any liquidation pressure would emerge. Bitcoin’s realized cap recently hit an all-time high, reflecting continued capital entering the network even during the drawdown.

Bernstein’s bullish case also referenced the evolving U.S. regulatory landscape, including ongoing stablecoin rulemaking under the GENIUS Act and the rollout of crypto perpetual futures on domestic venues. The firm viewed these developments as structural tailwinds that could reshape how blockchain intersects with traditional financial markets.

The net effect of treasury-company buying offsetting ETF redemptions creates a dynamic where Bitcoin’s supply-demand balance remains tighter than headline outflow numbers suggest. Bernstein’s $150,000 target implies a roughly 138% rally from current levels by year-end, an ambitious call that rests on the assumption these institutional flows accelerate in the second half of 2026.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making decisions.