Bitcoin Bottom Could Hit $38K, NYDIG Warns

NYDIG says Bitcoin could see a bottom near $38,000-$39,000 if the 2025-2026 selloff follows the same peak-to-trough math as prior bear markets, a conditional scenario the research firm frames as a historical analogue rather than a guaranteed forecast.

The estimate comes from NYDIG’s latest research note, which maps out where Bitcoin would land if the current drawdown deepened to match the roughly 70% declines seen in earlier cycles. The firm was explicit that this is a “what if” comparison, not a price target. For related coverage, see Arthur Hayes Foresees Bitcoin Hitting $250,000 by 2025.

Why NYDIG Sees a Possible Bitcoin Bottom Near $38K-$39K

NYDIG said Bitcoin’s current cycle low of $59,750 represented a 52.7% decline from the peak, a drop that is real but still shallower than every previous bear market. For related coverage, see JPMorgan Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach $170K in 12 Months.

Applying a 70% drawdown threshold, the level that has roughly marked historical bottoms, would place Bitcoin near $37,900. That figure is the arithmetic behind the headline’s rounded $38,000-$39,000 framing.

Bitcoin traded at roughly $64,571 at the time of the research, with a market capitalization around $1.29 trillion, leaving it well above the deeper analogue NYDIG describes.

The current cycle peaked at $126,080 in October 2025, according to market data, giving the drawdown framework its starting point. NYDIG’s point is that even a 70% fall from that high would still leave this bear market milder than prior ones.

The firm anchored its downside map with two on-chain reference levels: the 1x MVRV level at $53,700 and the 200-week moving average near $61,800. Those sit between the live price and the deeper $37,900 analogue as intermediate zones to watch.

This is a similar valuation-anchored approach to the one behind Bernstein’s decision to keep its $150,000 Bitcoin target despite the 54% pullback, though NYDIG is focused on the downside rather than the recovery.

What a Repeat Bear-Market Pattern Would Mean for Bitcoin’s Next Move

The $38,000-$39,000 zone only matters if the historical pattern holds. NYDIG’s whole framework rests on the assumption that this cycle’s drawdown behaves like the ones before it, which institutional demand may have changed.

Whether the low is already in place likely depends on whether institutional demand has structurally altered the cycle or merely delayed a deeper reset.
— Greg Cipolaro, NYDIG (research note)

On-chain readings suggest the market has already reset meaningfully. NYDIG noted that Percent Supply in Profit had just hit 49% and that long-term holder SOPR recently reached 0.95, both signs of stress that often accompany bottoming processes.

Sentiment matches that stress. The crypto Fear and Greed Index sat at 25, a reading of “Extreme Fear,” aligning with NYDIG’s argument that the market has reset but may not have reached full historical-style capitulation. Bitcoin’s slide has pushed crypto fear to levels rivaling the 2020 and FTX lows.

The comparison would lose its value if this cycle no longer resembles past ones. If steady institutional and ETF flows put a floor under prices well above the historical drawdown band, the $37,900 analogue becomes a math exercise rather than a real risk level.

That structural question is exactly what separates the bulls from the bears right now. It also sits against far more optimistic calls, from JPMorgan’s view that Bitcoin could rise to challenge gold by 2026 to Arthur Hayes’ forecast that Bitcoin could reach $250,000.

For traders, the practical takeaway is scenario mapping, not a prediction. Systematic and AI-assisted desks often treat historical drawdown bands like NYDIG’s as risk context, watching whether the $53,700 MVRV and $61,800 moving-average levels hold before the deeper analogue ever comes into play. None of this is investment advice.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making decisions.